Donald Trump is heading to the White House with a pledge to revive the U.S. economy and put millions of Americans back to work.
Based on the latest economic data, much of that goal has already been accomplished by President Barack Obama.
Americans voters' widespread anxiety about the economy played a major role in the 2016 election. Trump's broad promises to restore widely shared prosperity, with little policy details spelled out, helped him win what many saw as as upset victory.
The underpinnings of that popular economic anxiety, though, are well defined. Since peaking in 1979, American manufacturing employment has shrunk by a third a loss of more than 7 million jobs.
Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence speaks at a campaign rally at The Villages, Fla., on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel via AP)
There's a big disagreementbrewing in global markets.
While risky assets including equitieshave surged following the U.K. electorate'shistoric voteto leave the European Union, government bonds have also rallied;two things thatought to suggestdifferent outlooks for economic growth.Soaring bond prices have sent yields on the perceived safe havens of government debt plumbing fresh lows, even whileexpectations of looser monetary policy producea burstof animal spiritsin stockmarkets.
The flight to safety has prompted some analysts to question the durability of the rally inequities, where the S&P 500 was up 3.5percent lastweek and the FTSE 100 has erased its post-referendum dip at least, in local-currency terms. Still others say that money ispouring into stocksas lower bond yields force investors to search for returns in alternative asset classes.
Among theseries of record-breakingmoveschalked up in the world of sovereign debt last week were the new lows breached by the yields on 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasuries. Spanish yields also dipped to a record, whileyields on theentirety of theSwiss government bond market turned negative on Friday.
Meanwhile, aFederal Reserve Bank of New York measure of the 10-year term premium a gaugeof the supposedriskiness of longer-dated debt has fallento negative 0.66percent, eclipsing an all-time low last seen when Bob Dylanreleased his first album.
Inflation expectationsderived from U.S. bonds are fallingat precisely the same time that stocks havejumped, suggesting a "dangerous disconnect" between interest rates and equities, according to analysts at TD Securities Inc.
"We believe that the equity market is complacent about the growth spillover from the uncertainty shock caused by Brexit, but is still pricing in monetary policy easing. Additionally, expectations for no Brexit despite the Leave win or a good deal from the EU appear optimistic. Global growth should be affected by a recession in the U.K. the worlds fifth largest economy," wrote TD Securities analysts led byPriya Misra.
Analysts are alsopointing to the flattening U.S. yield curve that is, that interest rates across different maturities of debt are becoming more similar as evidence of slowing expectations ofeconomic growth.
The spread between the yield on 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury notes narrowed in the immediate aftermath of the June 23rd referendum, widened briefly, andis now shrinkingagain as investors continue to flock to the perceived safetyof U.S. government debt. A model maintained by Deutsche Bank AG's Steven Zeng, who adjusts the spread for historically low short-term interest rates, suggests the yield curve is now signaling a 60 percent chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months up from a 55 percent probabilityas of mid-June, and thehighest implied odds since August 2008.
"This relentless flattening of the curve is worrisome," Deutsche analysts led by Dominic Konstam said in their note on the model. "Given the historicaltendency of a very flat or inverted yield curve to precede a U.S. recession, theodds of the next economic downturn are rising."
Deutsche'smodel, which compares10-year yields tothree-month yields, issaid to beat its most predicatively powerful once its recession probability movesbeyond 70 percent. That willhappen should the 10-year yield move to one percent, and the three-month yield remain unchanged.
The 10-year yield is currently at 1.44 percent, making a recession just about 40 basis points away according to this particular interpretation of the bond market's moves.
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NEW YORK The Latest on campaign 2016 a day before New Yorkers vote in their states crucial primary (all times Eastern Daylight Time):
Donald Trump made an unfortunate slip-of-the-tongue while campaigning in Buffalo, New York, on Monday evening at his final rally before Tuesdays big-prize primary.
Trump was about to deliver prepared remarks lauding New York values when he mistakenly mentioned the name of a popular convenience store chain in place of 9/11.
Its very close to my heart because I was down there, and I watched our police and our firemen down at 7/11, down at the World Trade Center right after it came down, and I saw the greatest people Ive ever s
ZURICH Swiss authorities began a new series of pre-dawn arrests Thursday in the broad investigation, led by United States officials, into corruption in international soccer. More than a dozen people were expected to be charged, law enforcement officials said, nearly doubling the size of an already huge case that has upended FIFA, soccers multibillion-dollar governing body.
Some of the arrests took place at the same luxury hotel where other FIFA officials were arrested in May. Swiss police entered the hotel, the Baur au Lac, through a side door at 6 a.m. local time. A hotel manager told visitors in the lobby they had to leave the property because of an extreme situation.
JERUSALEM Israeli border police shot dead a Palestinian who stabbed an officer in Jerusalem on Sunday, a police spokesman said, the latest attack in a two-month wave of violence.
Near a main gate of Jerusalem's walled Old City, the Palestinian pulled out a knife and stabbed a border policeman in the neck, moderately wounding him, before being shot by officers, the spokesman said.
Almost daily Palestinian stabbings, car rammings and shootings have killed 19 Israelis and one U.S. citizen since Oct. 1.
Israeli forces have killed 94 Palestinians, many of whom were carrying out assaults and others in clashes with police and troops. Many of those killed have been teenagers.
Palestinian allegations that Israel is trying to alter the religious status quo at a Jerusalem holy site, known to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary, where al-Aqsa mosque stands, and to Jews as the Temple Mount, have partly fueled the violence.
Non-Muslim prayer is banned around al-Aqsa and Israel has said it will not change that. But more visits in recent years by Jewish religious activists and ultra-nationalist Israeli politicians to the complex, where two biblical temples once stood, have done little to convince Palestinians.
Overnight in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, Israeli forces shut down and confiscated equipment from a Palestinian radio station, the third in recent weeks, that the military said has repeatedly broadcast material which "promotes and encourages terror and acts of violence against Israeli civilians and security forces."
The station owner, Talab al-Jabar, told Reuters that the broadcaster, called Dream, was not inciting, rather reporting on events. "I can tell you that Dream radio will be back on air very soon and it will be stronger," he said.
(Reporting by Ari Rabinovitch, Yusri al-Jamal; Editing by Dominic Evans)
Carly Fiorina has officially made it onto the short list of candidates being considered by the Koch Brothers network of donors -- potentially opening the door to a deep pool of money.
Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, the Koch brothers umbrella group, which includes a sprawling network of conservative donors, confirmed to ABC News that Fiorina is one of the five candidates on the donor networks watch list.
"Governor Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are leading a thoughtful and substantive discussion on the issues and we look forward to hearing more about their vision for the country, Freedom Partners spokesman James Davis told ABC News.
Fiorina's addition to list serves as a signal that her newly attained top-tier status is being taken seriously by conservative donors and will likely mean increased access for Fiorina to Freedom Partners deep-pocketed donors.
The news also comes after Reuters reported earlier this week that the Koch Brothers were taking a serious look at Fiorina following her strong debate performances and subsequent jump in the polls.
The Koch brothers first revealed a list of five candidates whom they were considering helping financially back in April, and it has remained unchanged until now. In April, the list included former Bush, Cruz, Paul, Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who effectively removed himself from the list when he dropped out of the race last month.
While Fiorina has now attained a new stature within the Koch brothers network, this is not her first foray into their world. The Kochs donated to Fiorinas unsuccessful senate bid against California Sen. Barbara Boxer in 2010.
And in August, Fiorina was invited to address a Freedom Partners gathering. Bush, Walker, Rubio, and Cruz also addressed the gathering. But there were some notable absences. Paul, who was invited to address the gathering, did not attend. And the partys frontrunner, Donald Trump, did not receive an invitation. Another surging candidate in the race who has yet to receive a nod from the Koch brothers is retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The Kochs and their network arent the only big name, wealthy donors considering opening their pocketbooks for Fiorina.
Texas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens reportedly hosted a luncheon for her back in September. And venture capitalist and former fellow HP board member Tom Perkins, who voted to fire Fiorina as HPs CEO but has since said he regrets the decision and has run a full-page ad in the New York Times to say so, is also said to be planning a California fundraiser for the presidential candidate in the coming weeks.
Fiorinas fundraising figures from the most recent reporting quarter have yet to be announced by her campaign but Fiorina has said that she is satisfied with her fundraising efforts, which have seen a boost along with her polling numbers in recent months.
Fiorina's camp did not immediately comment.
- Obama's biggest parting gift to Trump may be the economy - CNBC
- The Latest: Clinton condemns 'apparent terrorist attacks' - Fox News
- Bond Markets Have a Message About the Economy That Stock Investors Might Not Want to Hear - Bloomberg
- The Latest: Trump mistakenly cites 7-Eleven instead of 9/11 - Washington Post
- FIFA Corruption: Top Officials Arrested in Pre-Dawn Raid at Zurich Hotel - New York Times
- Israeli officers shoot dead Palestinian attacker: police - Reuters
- Carly Fiorina Added to Koch Brothers' Short List